August 16, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Gold touched $2,500 an oz for the primary time in historical past in spot buying and selling, whereas COMEX futures reached $2,538.
Gold’s positive factors as we speak come as extra weak point within the US financial system comes as constructing permits hit a greater than year-low and housing begins fell to a four-year low.
Whereas weaker-than-expected housing market numbers, together with a slew of knowledge this week, could enhance hopes for extra charge cuts this yr, particularly in September, they haven’t revived the case for a 50-bps minimize on the subsequent assembly. In different phrases, an emergency charge minimize to save lots of the financial system is unlikely after markets appear to have overpriced it. Regardless of that, gold continued its historic positive factors.
The likelihood of a 25-basis level minimize in September is 76.5% in comparison with 23.5% for a 50-basis level minimize, in accordance with the CME FedWatch Instrument.
In distinction to the prevailing negativity in regards to the well being of the US financial system, we noticed a higher-than-expected improve in shopper confidence as we speak, in accordance with the College of Michigan’s survey for August. This sentiment was pushed by optimism about private monetary and financial outlook, in accordance with the survey. This will assist calm fears in regards to the US financial system falling into recession, as improved sentiment might result in help for spending.
Gold might be able to maintain its positive factors with out important progress within the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, as they may in the end result in defusing a wider regional struggle. Nevertheless, whereas yesterday’s negotiations in Qatar didn’t lead to a breakthrough, “some gaps have been narrowed,” in accordance with US Nationwide Safety Council spokesman John Kirby. In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caught to his demand that his forces stay within the Philadelphi hall, in accordance with The Washington Submit. The main target stays on the outcomes of as we speak’s negotiations.
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